This is a study by the Australian hamstring group who have produced a tonne of great research relating to hamstring strain injuries. In this study they found an association with running load in the previous week and HSI, however in terms of predicting individual HSI the data was not conclusive.
Published online: 24 Nov 2016
“Conclusions: An association exists between absolute and relative running exposure variables and elite Australian footballers’ risk of subsequent HSI, with the association strongest when examining data within 7–14 days. Despite this, the use of running exposure variables displayed limited clinical utility to predict HSI at the individual level.”
As with the bulk of the research, in terms of predicting which athlete would go on to suffer a HSI there just isn’t one to date, and perhaps we might not find one in the future. This is because injuries are multifactorial and HSI is no different. However this study provides some insights into how teams can better monitor loads to minimise the risk of injury.
Please click here for the abstract of the paper or the full text if you have access.